Election Day

What to look for tonight

Friends,

I’ve already discussed the choice in this election from my perspective, and you’ve seen Not Our Faith’s closing ad:

I offered my perspective on how Christians should think about voting. I also provided pretty granular analysis and a prediction about what will unfold today on the Faith 2020 podcast.

So here I just want to do a few things: update my prediction, offer some resources to help you understand what happens tonight, and give you a few key dynamics to keep an eye on as results unfold.

And while you read, think about becoming a subscriber! We have a special Election Day deal.

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My Prediction

First, it’s a presidential election involving Donald Trump—anything can happen. But based on what I’m seeing, and fairly consistent public polling, I believe Joe Biden is going to win this campaign. My official prediction is that he will win with 320-340 electoral votes. That said, I would not be surprised if he won 380+. It is certainly what I hope for: a defeat that forces the Republican party to reexamine where Trump took them during his presidency and whether this is the path they want to stay on for the future.

A Trump victory would likely look like this:

If Biden wins Georgia, North Carolina or Florida early in the night, it’s a good sign that we’ll have a victory speech before we go to bed, and that Biden is on his way to 380+. If Trump is close in MN/WI, it suggests we got things very wrong, again, and Trump is over-performing.

Resources

A few resources that will help you sort through results tonight:

  1. The Atlantic’s Nick Baumann with his gameplan for watching election returns tonight. Super helpful!

  2. The New York Times with a review of when and how each state is reporting its results.

  3. Brookings with a review of the competitive Senate races.

What to watch for tonight

Early signs Biden is having a good night:

  1. His polling lead with senior citizens throughout this campaign holds up

  2. Biden is winning Catholics by 3+ points nationally

  3. Biden is losing White Catholics by no more than 8-points nationally

  4. Biden pulls 20% among white evangelicals nationally, and overperforms that national numbers (as previous Democrats have) in the Rust-Belt.

Early signs Trump can win:

  1. High Election Day turnout

  2. Over 10% of the Black vote nationally

  3. Over 30% of the Hispanic vote nationally

  4. Trump gets 43%+ among women

  5. White evangelical turnout accounts for 26%+ of the electorate

See you tonight

There’s more to say, of course, but we’ll have more than enough time for that tonight. As a reminder, we’ll be doing live analysis all night, starting at 7 PM EST. You’ll get an email with the link later this afternoon. We’ll have guests coming through throughout the night, so you’ll want to be sure to be with us!

See you then.

Michael