I’ve already discussed the choice in this election from my perspective, and you’ve seen Not Our Faith’s closing ad:
So here I just want to do a few things: update my prediction, offer some resources to help you understand what happens tonight, and give you a few key dynamics to keep an eye on as results unfold.
And while you read, think about becoming a subscriber! We have a special Election Day deal.
First, it’s a presidential election involving Donald Trump—anything can happen. But based on what I’m seeing, and fairly consistent public polling, I believe Joe Biden is going to win this campaign. My official prediction is that he will win with 320-340 electoral votes. That said, I would not be surprised if he won 380+. It is certainly what I hope for: a defeat that forces the Republican party to reexamine where Trump took them during his presidency and whether this is the path they want to stay on for the future.
A Trump victory would likely look like this:
If Biden wins Georgia, North Carolina or Florida early in the night, it’s a good sign that we’ll have a victory speech before we go to bed, and that Biden is on his way to 380+. If Trump is close in MN/WI, it suggests we got things very wrong, again, and Trump is over-performing.
A few resources that will help you sort through results tonight:
The Atlantic’s Nick Baumann with his gameplan for watching election returns tonight. Super helpful!
The New York Times with a review of when and how each state is reporting its results.
Brookings with a review of the competitive Senate races.
What to watch for tonight
Early signs Biden is having a good night:
His polling lead with senior citizens throughout this campaign holds up
Biden is winning Catholics by 3+ points nationally
Biden is losing White Catholics by no more than 8-points nationally
Biden pulls 20% among white evangelicals nationally, and overperforms that national numbers (as previous Democrats have) in the Rust-Belt.
Early signs Trump can win:
High Election Day turnout
Over 10% of the Black vote nationally
Over 30% of the Hispanic vote nationally
Trump gets 43%+ among women
White evangelical turnout accounts for 26%+ of the electorate
See you tonight
There’s more to say, of course, but we’ll have more than enough time for that tonight. As a reminder, we’ll be doing live analysis all night, starting at 7 PM EST. You’ll get an email with the link later this afternoon. We’ll have guests coming through throughout the night, so you’ll want to be sure to be with us!
See you then.